← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 39% | 50% | 2.48 | value: +25% |
| NEC win | 35% | 26% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 960.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1496.14 | 1438.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.83 | 14.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.91 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |