← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 49% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +4% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 76.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1441.42 | 1424.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.21 | -17.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.91 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |