← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Fri, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 74% | 78% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 6.11 | fair |
| Heracles win | 10% | 9% | 9.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1668.23 | 1505.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.44 | 5.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 35.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |