← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Wed, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 59% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.16 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 17% | 23% | 5.59 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 256.00 | 773.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1504.69 | 1721.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.74 | 5.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 28.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.95 |
| state index | -0.51 | 0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |