← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 64% | 56% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.72 | value: +9% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 16% | 21% | 6.22 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 253.00 | 2780.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1531.56 | 1811.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.04 | 8.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 31.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 2.14 |
| state index | 0.13 | 1.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |