← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 44% | 48% | 2.22 | value: +7% |
| FC Utrecht win | 30% | 26% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1496.49 | 1552.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.41 | -43.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 23.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |