← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 50% | 50% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +3% |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 24% | 22% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1319.00 | 345.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1507.72 | 1484.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.12 | 10.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 28.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |