← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 47% | 44% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.65 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 26% | 28% | 3.72 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4970.00 | 69.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1487.48 | 1452.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.54 | -3.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |