← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 44% | 52% | 2.24 | value: +16% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 587.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1491.02 | 1574.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.46 | 20.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| league points | 25.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.50 |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |