← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 61% | 61% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.19 | fair |
| Heracles win | 16% | 18% | 6.09 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1046.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1603.54 | 1485.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.22 | -11.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 60.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.15 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |