← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 46% | 47% | 2.11 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 29% | 32% | 3.41 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2872.00 | 1046.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1482.15 | 1559.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.47 | -48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 30.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.27 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |