← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 48% | 55% | 2.04 | value: +13% |
| Waalwijk win | 26% | 22% | 3.68 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 681.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1460.55 | 1448.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.21 | -4.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 37.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.03 |
| state index | -1.39 | -0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |