← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 49% | 61% | 1.99 | value: +21% |
| FC Groningen win | 26% | 14% | 3.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3876.00 | 2507.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1482.83 | 1825.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.91 | 12.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| league points | 43.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 2.21 |
| state index | 0.29 | 1.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |