← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 40% | 43% | 2.42 | value: +4% |
| Waalwijk win | 32% | 29% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1434.35 | 1651.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.16 | -0.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 31.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |