← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 45% | 38% | 2.10 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 28% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 35% | 3.48 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4691.00 | 2865.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1490.26 | 1494.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.89 | 0.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 35.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.94 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |