← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 55% | 52% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 3.97 | value: +7% |
| FC Utrecht win | 20% | 21% | 4.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1039.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1555.76 | 1587.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.37 | 9.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 42.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.78 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |