← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 64% | 56% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.38 | value: +6% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 14% | 20% | 6.90 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1039.00 | 1220.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1574.80 | 1498.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.60 | 13.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 36.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |