← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 87% | 92% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 5% | 10.00 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 4% | 3% | 26.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2500.00 | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1824.63 | 1282.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.65 | -0.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| league points | 70.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 0.63 |
| state index | 1.58 | -1.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |