← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 50% | 46% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.82 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 24% | 28% | 4.01 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1213.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1508.09 | 1577.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.44 | -5.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 36.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.74 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |