← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 73% | 75% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.62 | fair |
| NEC win | 10% | 10% | 9.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 483.00 | 667.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1662.48 | 1471.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.50 | -51.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 55.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.75 | -1.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |