← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 77% | 72% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.68 | value: +14% |
| Heracles win | 8% | 11% | 11.82 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 667.00 | 1032.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1714.03 | 1489.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.91 | -6.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| league points | 63.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.96 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |