← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 42% | 41% | 2.33 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 30% | 22% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 36% | 3.49 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2857.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1463.57 | 1446.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.99 | 8.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 27.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.75 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |