← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 84% | 75% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 11% | 8.50 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 5% | 15% | 19.62 | value: +191% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 3861.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1753.48 | 1509.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.75 | 41.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| league points | 63.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.35 |
| state index | 1.15 | 0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |