← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 74% | 65% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.78 | value: +9% |
| NAC Breda win | 9% | 16% | 10.61 | value: +70% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4683.00 | 2492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1495.11 | 1840.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.67 | 14.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| league points | 35.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.16 |
| state index | 0.07 | 1.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |