← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 44% | 48% | 2.19 | value: +5% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 28% | 25% | 3.46 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 660.00 | 1206.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1488.54 | 1490.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.96 | 10.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 37.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.10 |
| state index | -1.05 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |