← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 60% | 53% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.09 | value: +14% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 16% | 19% | 6.10 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3854.00 | 659.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1482.24 | 1467.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.64 | -48.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 39.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| state index | 0.29 | -1.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |