← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 52% | 50% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.95 | fair |
| AZ win | 23% | 24% | 4.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1024.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1562.24 | 1721.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.17 | -21.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| league points | 33.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |