← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 83% | 82% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 12% | 8.80 | value: +3% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 6% | 7% | 17.70 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2484.00 | 1023.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1826.89 | 1571.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.00 | 33.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 66.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.37 |
| state index | 1.73 | 0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |