← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 49% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.54 | fair |
| AFC Ajax win | 24% | 27% | 4.13 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1751.87 | 1838.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.34 | 27.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| league points | 60.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 2.17 |
| state index | 1.09 | 1.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |