← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 74% | 83% | 1.31 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 17% | 12% | 5.68 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 9% | 5% | 11.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1018.00 | 653.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1569.67 | 1273.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.01 | -12.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 38.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 0.59 |
| state index | 0.71 | -1.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |