← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 62% | 51% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.50 | value: +26% |
| FC Utrecht win | 16% | 21% | 5.94 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1018.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1541.90 | 1587.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.82 | -2.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 30.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.76 |
| state index | -0.10 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |