← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 49% | 48% | 1.99 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 26% | 20% | 3.68 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 33% | 3.98 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1017.00 | 3847.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1493.29 | 1463.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.37 | -0.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 34.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |