← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 41% | 41% | 2.41 | fair |
| NEC win | 33% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.63 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 646.00 | 1011.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1522.39 | 1562.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.33 | -21.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 36.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.04 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |