← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 37% | 37% | 2.62 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 35% | 37% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3841.00 | 1011.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1444.92 | 1588.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.52 | 72.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 33.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.36 |
| state index | -0.40 | 1.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |