← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 82% | 87% | 1.19 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 11% | 7% | 8.75 | fair |
| Heracles win | 7% | 6% | 15.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2472.00 | 1011.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1813.82 | 1497.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.76 | -15.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| league points | 60.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.21 |
| state index | 1.57 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |