← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 45% | 42% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 36% | 3.36 | value: +20% |
| Waalwijk win | 26% | 23% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1191.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1480.86 | 1453.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.60 | 12.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 29.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |