← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 64% | 73% | 1.52 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.75 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 15% | 10% | 6.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 279.00 | 4662.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1655.90 | 1481.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 58.09 | 18.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 57.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 1.14 |
| state index | 1.46 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |