← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 69% | 67% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 4.91 | value: +11% |
| Roda JC win | 11% | 10% | 8.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 461.00 | 2836.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1652.77 | 1480.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.64 | -5.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 48.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.93 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |