← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 49% | 53% | 1.97 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.61 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 23% | 23% | 4.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 639.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1434.19 | 1502.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.81 | 16.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 26.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.33 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |