← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 69% | 58% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 24% | 5.25 | value: +27% |
| Roda JC win | 12% | 18% | 7.92 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2830.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1475.08 | 1732.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.60 | -13.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 2.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| league points | 25.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 14.96 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 2.07 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.79 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |