← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 39% | 34% | 2.48 | fair |
| Heracles win | 35% | 35% | 2.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.76 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1004.00 | 1004.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1526.88 | 1551.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.72 | -33.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 34.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.96 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |