← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 81% | 88% | 1.20 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 13% | 7% | 7.71 | fair |
| NEC win | 6% | 5% | 16.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2465.00 | 639.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1809.98 | 1506.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.76 | -49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| league points | 57.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.96 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 1.33 |
| state index | 1.53 | -0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |