← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 72% | 69% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.35 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 10% | 14% | 9.90 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 454.00 | 4655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1658.81 | 1475.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.37 | 12.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 47.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.15 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |