← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 56% | 64% | 1.74 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 18% | 12% | 5.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4642.00 | 625.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1468.06 | 1291.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.11 | 3.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 28.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.65 |
| state index | -0.31 | -1.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |