← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 44% | 38% | 2.23 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 29% | 32% | 3.31 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.63 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3820.00 | 441.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1448.38 | 1647.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.34 | -51.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 30.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.69 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |