← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 56% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.89 | fair |
| AZ win | 19% | 19% | 5.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 990.00 | 2451.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1556.14 | 1826.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.43 | 4.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| league points | 26.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.08 |
| state index | -0.66 | 1.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |