← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 81% | 84% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.73 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 6% | 4% | 15.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1729.30 | 1437.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.90 | -16.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| league points | 53.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |