← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 48% | 53% | 2.02 | value: +7% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 26% | 24% | 3.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 624.00 | 258.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1518.20 | 1635.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.76 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 36.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.96 |
| state index | 0.58 | 0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |