← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 52% | 58% | 1.89 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 23% | 18% | 4.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1599.18 | 1464.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.06 | -21.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 42.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.04 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |