← Eredivisie 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 46% | 56% | 2.12 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.58 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 27% | 21% | 3.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 434.00 | 252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1660.72 | 1623.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -61.88 | 25.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.92 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |